Friday, January 9, 2009

dBlackSwan-80 !!

Most of our mistakes in reasoning come from using System 1 [the experiential] when we are in fact thinking that we are using System 2 [the cogitative]. How? Since we react without thinking and introspection, the main property of System 1 is our lack of awareness of using it!
Recall the round-trip error, our tendency to confuse "no evidence of Black Swans" with "evidence of no Black Swans"; it shows System 1 at work. You have to make an effort (System 2) to override your first reaction. Clearly Mother Nature makes you use the fast System 1 to get out of trouble, so that you do not sit down and cogitate whether there is truly a tiger attacking you or if it is an optical illusion. You run immediately, before you become "conscious" of the presence of the tiger.
Emotions are assumed to be the weapon System 1 uses to direct us and force us to act quickly. It mediates risk avoidance far more effectively than our cognitive system. Indeed, neurobiologists who have studied the emotional system show how it often reacts to the presence of danger long before we are consciously aware of it—we experience fear and start reacting a few milliseconds before we realize that we are facing a snake.
Much of the trouble with human nature resides in our inability to use much of System 2, or to use it in a prolonged way without having to take a long beach vacation. In addition, we often just forget to use it.

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