Monday, December 1, 2008

dBlackSwan-11

...the studious examination of the past in the greatest of detail does not teach you much about the mind of History; it only gives you the illusion of understanding it.
History and societies do not crawl. They make jumps. They go from fracture to fracture, with a few vibrations in between. Yet we (and historians) like to believe in the predictable, small incremental progression.
It struck me, a belief that has never left me since, that we are just a great machine for looking backward, and that humans are great at self-delusion. Every year that goes by increases my belief in this distortion.

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